使用可能的异质动力学估算时间序列数据的价值风险是一项高度挑战的任务。通常，我们面临着一个小的数据问题，结合了高度的非线性，因此对于经典和机器学习估计算法造成了困难。在本文中，我们提出了使用长期记忆（LSTM）神经网络的新型价值估计器，并将其性能与基准GARCH估计器进行比较。我们的结果表明，即使在相对较短的时间序列中，LSTM也可以用于完善或监视风险估计过程，并以非参数方式正确识别潜在的风险动态。我们对模拟和市场数据的估计器进行了评估，重点是异方差，发现LSTM在模拟数据上表现出与GARCH估算器相似的性能，而在实际市场数据上，它对增加波动性或降低波动性更为敏感，并且优于所有现有的现有估计器在异常率和平均分位数评分方面，价值风险。

纵向生物医学数据通常是稀疏时间网格和个体特定发展模式的特征。具体而言，在流行病学队列研究和临床登记处，我们面临的问题是在研究早期阶段中可以从数据中学到的问题，只有基线表征和一个后续测量。灵感来自最近的进步，允许将深度学习与动态建模相结合，我们调查这些方法是否可用于揭示复杂结构，特别是对于每个单独的两个观察时间点的极端小数据设置。然后，通过利用个体的相似性，可以使用不规则间距来获得有关个体动态的更多信息。我们简要概述了变形的自动化器（VAES）如何作为深度学习方法，可以与普通微分方程（ODES）相关联用于动态建模，然后具体研究这种方法的可行性，即提供个人特定的潜在轨迹的方法通过包括规律性假设和个人的相似性。我们还提供了对这种深度学习方法的描述作为过滤任务，以提供统计的视角。使用模拟数据，我们展示了方法可以在多大程度上从多大程度上恢复具有两个和四个未知参数的颂歌系统的单个轨迹，以及使用具有类似轨迹的个体群体，以及其崩溃的地方。结果表明，即使在极端的小数据设置中，这种动态深度学习方法也可能是有用的，但需要仔细调整。

A learned system uses machine learning (ML) internally to improve performance. We can expect such systems to be vulnerable to some adversarial-ML attacks. Often, the learned component is shared between mutually-distrusting users or processes, much like microarchitectural resources such as caches, potentially giving rise to highly-realistic attacker models. However, compared to attacks on other ML-based systems, attackers face a level of indirection as they cannot interact directly with the learned model. Additionally, the difference between the attack surface of learned and non-learned versions of the same system is often subtle. These factors obfuscate the de-facto risks that the incorporation of ML carries. We analyze the root causes of potentially-increased attack surface in learned systems and develop a framework for identifying vulnerabilities that stem from the use of ML. We apply our framework to a broad set of learned systems under active development. To empirically validate the many vulnerabilities surfaced by our framework, we choose 3 of them and implement and evaluate exploits against prominent learned-system instances. We show that the use of ML caused leakage of past queries in a database, enabled a poisoning attack that causes exponential memory blowup in an index structure and crashes it in seconds, and enabled index users to snoop on each others' key distributions by timing queries over their own keys. We find that adversarial ML is a universal threat against learned systems, point to open research gaps in our understanding of learned-systems security, and conclude by discussing mitigations, while noting that data leakage is inherent in systems whose learned component is shared between multiple parties.

Massive data corpora like WebText, Wikipedia, Conceptual Captions, WebImageText, and LAION have propelled recent dramatic progress in AI. Large neural models trained on such datasets produce impressive results and top many of today's benchmarks. A notable omission within this family of large-scale datasets is 3D data. Despite considerable interest and potential applications in 3D vision, datasets of high-fidelity 3D models continue to be mid-sized with limited diversity of object categories. Addressing this gap, we present Objaverse 1.0, a large dataset of objects with 800K+ (and growing) 3D models with descriptive captions, tags, and animations. Objaverse improves upon present day 3D repositories in terms of scale, number of categories, and in the visual diversity of instances within a category. We demonstrate the large potential of Objaverse via four diverse applications: training generative 3D models, improving tail category segmentation on the LVIS benchmark, training open-vocabulary object-navigation models for Embodied AI, and creating a new benchmark for robustness analysis of vision models. Objaverse can open new directions for research and enable new applications across the field of AI.

Runtime monitoring provides a more realistic and applicable alternative to verification in the setting of real neural networks used in industry. It is particularly useful for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, for which the network was not trained and can yield erroneous results. We extend a runtime-monitoring approach previously proposed for classification networks to perception systems capable of identification and localization of multiple objects. Furthermore, we analyze its adequacy experimentally on different kinds of OOD settings, documenting the overall efficacy of our approach.

Attention-based multiple instance learning (AMIL) algorithms have proven to be successful in utilizing gigapixel whole-slide images (WSIs) for a variety of different computational pathology tasks such as outcome prediction and cancer subtyping problems. We extended an AMIL approach to the task of survival prediction by utilizing the classical Cox partial likelihood as a loss function, converting the AMIL model into a nonlinear proportional hazards model. We applied the model to tissue microarray (TMA) slides of 330 lung cancer patients. The results show that AMIL approaches can handle very small amounts of tissue from a TMA and reach similar C-index performance compared to established survival prediction methods trained with highly discriminative clinical factors such as age, cancer grade, and cancer stage

Cutting planes are a crucial component of state-of-the-art mixed-integer programming solvers, with the choice of which subset of cuts to add being vital for solver performance. We propose new distance-based measures to qualify the value of a cut by quantifying the extent to which it separates relevant parts of the relaxed feasible set. For this purpose, we use the analytic centers of the relaxation polytope or of its optimal face, as well as alternative optimal solutions of the linear programming relaxation. We assess the impact of the choice of distance measure on root node performance and throughout the whole branch-and-bound tree, comparing our measures against those prevalent in the literature. Finally, by a multi-output regression, we predict the relative performance of each measure, using static features readily available before the separation process. Our results indicate that analytic center-based methods help to significantly reduce the number of branch-and-bound nodes needed to explore the search space and that our multiregression approach can further improve on any individual method.

We introduce a linguistically enhanced combination of pre-training methods for transformers. The pre-training objectives include POS-tagging, synset prediction based on semantic knowledge graphs, and parent prediction based on dependency parse trees. Our approach achieves competitive results on the Natural Language Inference task, compared to the state of the art. Specifically for smaller models, the method results in a significant performance boost, emphasizing the fact that intelligent pre-training can make up for fewer parameters and help building more efficient models. Combining POS-tagging and synset prediction yields the overall best results.

Scaling up neural networks has led to remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. Moreover, performance often follows reliable scaling laws as a function of training set size, model size, and compute, which offers valuable guidance as large-scale experiments are becoming increasingly expensive. However, previous work on scaling laws has primarily used private data \& models or focused on uni-modal language or vision learning. To address these limitations, we investigate scaling laws for contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP) with the public LAION dataset and the open-source OpenCLIP repository. Our large-scale experiments involve models trained on up to two billion image-text pairs and identify power law scaling for multiple downstream tasks including zero-shot classification, retrieval, linear probing, and end-to-end fine-tuning. We find that the training distribution plays a key role in scaling laws as the OpenAI and OpenCLIP models exhibit different scaling behavior despite identical model architectures and similar training recipes. We open-source our evaluation workflow and all models, including the largest public CLIP models, to ensure reproducibility and make scaling laws research more accessible. Source code and instructions to reproduce this study will be available at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-openclip

Changing how pre-trained models behave -- e.g., improving their performance on a downstream task or mitigating biases learned during pre-training -- is a common practice when developing machine learning systems. In this work, we propose a new paradigm for steering the behavior of neural networks, centered around \textit{task vectors}. A task vector specifies a direction in the weight space of a pre-trained model, such that movement in that direction improves performance on the task. We build task vectors by subtracting the weights of a pre-trained model from the weights of the same model after fine-tuning on a task. We show that these task vectors can be modified and combined together through arithmetic operations such as negation and addition, and the behavior of the resulting model is steered accordingly. Negating a task vector decreases performance on the target task, with little change in model behavior on control tasks. Moreover, adding task vectors together can improve performance on multiple tasks at once. Finally, when tasks are linked by an analogy relationship of the form ``A is to B as C is to D", combining task vectors from three of the tasks can improve performance on the fourth, even when no data from the fourth task is used for training. Overall, our experiments with several models, modalities and tasks show that task arithmetic is a simple, efficient and effective way of editing models.